Occasionally, as we dig through the various databases we use in our practice, we discover datasets that have to potential to answer interesting questions that we sometimes wonder about. This past summer, we happened across the database of political contributions by zip code through July 28, 2010, made available at CampaignMoney.com, which provides access to all political contributions recorded by the Federal Elections Commission. We thought it would be interesting to see whether zip codes differ with respect to socioeconomic status as measured by savings and investment potential, based upon which party received the majority of contributions.
Our methodology was rather straight-forward. We began by categorizing each zip code in California, based on whether the largest percentage of contributions was made to Democrats, Republicans, or “Other. We then calculated the average MarketBankTM deposit potential and investment potential per resident household and then tested the means for statistical significance using an Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) procedure. As a second method of evaluating differences, we also categorized zip codes in which all of the contributions went entirely to a single party (or other), versus those in which contributions were spread between two or more parties.
Findings
Overall, CampaignMoney.com provided data for 26,791 zip codes in which political contributions were made, of which 21,683 were able to be matched to the MarketBankTM database. Within the zip codes matched to MarketBankTM, a total of $916,895,087 was contributed, broken out as follows:
Party | Total Contributions | Zip Codes Contributing Predominantly to One Party | Zip Codes Who Contributed Entirely to One Party |
Republicans | $139,787,007 | 2,307 | 809 |
Democrats | $369,233,991 | 3,674 | 1,227 |
Other | $407,874,089 | 7,791 | 3,405 |
No contributions | 7,911 | 16,242 |
MarketBankTM deposit potential estimates were calculated for each zip code on a “per household” basis, providing the average bank checking and savings deposits likely to be held in U.S. financial institutions. Based on the classifications of zip codes by contributions by political party, the average deposit potential and investment potential per household for zip codes were averaged for zip codes who predominantly contributed to Republicans, Democrats, and others (as well as those from which no contributions were recorded to any party.
The key question we wanted to answer was whether there is a significant difference between contributors to Democrats and contributors to Republicans on the basis of the socioeconomic status of the contributor’s zip code. Using the MarketBankTM bank deposit potential per household and investment potential per household as two proxies for socioeconomic status, we discovered that there is a statistically significant difference (p<.001) between zip codes in which residents primarily contribute to Republicans versus those who primarily contribute to Democrats. The average deposit potential per households of predominantly Republican-contributing zip codes was $19,021, compared to $20,465 for Democrat-contributing zip codes, and $19,763 for zip codes that contributed predominantly to other parties.
Investment potential per household followed a similar pattern, with Republican zip codes being lowest and Democrat zip codes highest in terms of potential.
Party | Zip Codes Contributing Predominantly to One Party | Bank Savings Deposit Potential per Household | Investment Potential per Household |
Republicans | 2,307 | $19,021 | $227,451 |
Democrats | 3,674 | $20,465 | $257,226 |
Other | 7,791 | $19,762 | $242,168 |
No contributions | 7,911 | $17,552 | $199,998 |
With respect to zip codes in which all contributions were made entirely to a single party, a similar statistically significant pattern (p<.001) can be observed , with the average deposit potential of $18,003 for Republican zip codes falling somewhat lower than the $18,542 for Democrat zip codes, and $18,621 for zip codes where all of the contributions were intended for a party other than Democrat or Republican.
Party | Zip Codes Contributing Entirely to One Party | Bank Deposit Potential per Household | Investment Potential per Household |
Republicans | 809 | $18,003 | $208,191 |
Democrats | 1,227 | $18,542 | $220,746 |
Other | 3,405 | $18,621 | $218,923 |
No contributions | 16,242 | $19,958 | $261,128 |
Although, the difference is not overwhelming, one can conclude from these data that communities (as defined by zip codes) in which political contributors lean Republican may tend toward less wealth in comparison to communities in which contributors lean Democrat, or toward other political parties. Although this does not represent an exhaustive study of socioeconomic status associated with party preference, it provides an interesting starting point for further analysis. In particular, a further breakdown of the “other” contributors may provide some insight as to where those funds are ultimately directed, and how those contributors may differ demographically.
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